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John Rentoul
John Rentoul is chief political commentator for The Independent on Sunday, and visiting fellow at Queen Mary, University of London, where he teaches contemporary history. Previously he was chief leader writer for The Independent. He has written a biography of Tony Blair, whom he admired more at the end of his time in office than he did at the beginning.
"The Independent's must-read man" - Daniel Finkelstein
You can contact John in the comments area or email him at j.rentoul@independent.co.uk
"The Independent's must-read man" - Daniel Finkelstein
You can contact John in the comments area or email him at j.rentoul@independent.co.uk
The Conservative lead is at just one percentage point in tomorrow's ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday. This is exactly the same as the last ComRes poll, for the daily Independent 11 days ago - so that one was not a rogue.
Change since last ComRes poll (Independent 2 December), and since last IoS/ComRes poll (16 November) in brackets.
That suggests that Gordon Brown is still closing on the Conservatives, pushing the average of the polls towards the lower end of the recent range, from the one-point Conservative lead reported by ComRes in The Independent on 2 December to a 15-point lead reported by ICM in The Guardian on 29 November. (In between have been Populus, four points; Ipsos-MORI, 11 points; and YouGov, four points; see Anthony Wells's Polling Report.)
ComRes also asked respondents if they agreed or disagreed with the following statements.
Taxes would be lower if the Conservatives were in government:
Agree 35%
Disagree 55%
The fall in the value of the pound shows that Gordon Brown’s economic plans probably won’t work:
Agree 52%
Disagree 39%
The Conservative response to the economic crisis seems to me like a ‘do nothing’ strategy:
Agree 45%
Disagree 45%
The Labour Government is planning to borrow too much:
Agree 67%
Disagree 25%
Interesting that as many as 39 per cent disagree that the fall in the pound is a vote of no confidence in Brown's policy. But also that people are evenly divided over that most brutal piece of Brown spin, that the Cameron approach is a "do-nothing" strategy.
ComRes telephoned 1,003 GB adults on 10 and 11 December 2008. Data were weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.
Conservative 37% (nc, -6)
Labour 36% (nc, +4)
Lib Dem 14% (-3, +2)
Other 12% (+2, nc)
Labour 36% (nc, +4)
Lib Dem 14% (-3, +2)
Other 12% (+2, nc)
Change since last ComRes poll (Independent 2 December), and since last IoS/ComRes poll (16 November) in brackets.
That suggests that Gordon Brown is still closing on the Conservatives, pushing the average of the polls towards the lower end of the recent range, from the one-point Conservative lead reported by ComRes in The Independent on 2 December to a 15-point lead reported by ICM in The Guardian on 29 November. (In between have been Populus, four points; Ipsos-MORI, 11 points; and YouGov, four points; see Anthony Wells's Polling Report.)
ComRes also asked respondents if they agreed or disagreed with the following statements.
Taxes would be lower if the Conservatives were in government:
Agree 35%
Disagree 55%
The fall in the value of the pound shows that Gordon Brown’s economic plans probably won’t work:
Agree 52%
Disagree 39%
The Conservative response to the economic crisis seems to me like a ‘do nothing’ strategy:
Agree 45%
Disagree 45%
The Labour Government is planning to borrow too much:
Agree 67%
Disagree 25%
Interesting that as many as 39 per cent disagree that the fall in the pound is a vote of no confidence in Brown's policy. But also that people are evenly divided over that most brutal piece of Brown spin, that the Cameron approach is a "do-nothing" strategy.
ComRes telephoned 1,003 GB adults on 10 and 11 December 2008. Data were weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.
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