John Rentoul (j_rentoul) wrote,
John Rentoul
j_rentoul

Brown still closing the gap

The Conservative lead is at just one percentage point in tomorrow's ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday. This is exactly the same as the last ComRes poll, for the daily Independent 11 days ago - so that one was not a rogue.

Conservative      37%     (nc, -6)
Labour                 36%     (nc, +4)
Lib Dem              14%    (-3, +2)
Other                    12%     (+2, nc)

Change since last ComRes poll (Independent 2 December), and since last IoS/ComRes poll (16 November) in brackets.

That suggests that Gordon Brown is still closing on the Conservatives, pushing the average of the polls towards the lower end of the recent range, from the one-point Conservative lead reported by ComRes in The Independent on 2 December to a 15-point lead reported by ICM in The Guardian on 29 November. (In between have been Populus, four points; Ipsos-MORI, 11 points; and YouGov, four points; see Anthony Wells's Polling Report.)

ComRes also asked respondents if they agreed or disagreed with the following statements.

Taxes would be lower if the Conservatives were in government:
Agree                 35%
Disagree           55%

The fall in the value of the pound shows that Gordon Brown’s economic plans probably won’t work:
Agree                 52%
Disagree           39%

The Conservative response to the economic crisis seems to me like a ‘do nothing’ strategy:
Agree                 45%
Disagree           45%

The Labour Government is planning to borrow too much:
Agree                 67%
Disagree           25%

Interesting that as many as 39 per cent disagree that the fall in the pound is a vote of no confidence in Brown's policy. But also that people are evenly divided over that most brutal piece of Brown spin, that the Cameron approach is a "do-nothing" strategy.

ComRes telephoned 1,003 GB adults on 10 and 11 December 2008. Data were weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.

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